Friday, January 25, 2019

4Q18: -39.95% Timing the market


“I have never known anyone who could consistently time the market. And in fact I’ve never known anyone who knows anyone, who was able to consistently time the market.”
~ Prof. Makiel author of the Random Walk Down Wall Street




Economists, equity analysts and “gurus” are great at providing predictions about the future. And when those predictions don't come to fruition, they are great at throwing excuses “Iphone sales would have hit my target if it weren't for (blank)”. Thus, I learnt many years ago not to rely on street predictions. However, one predictor which I admire greatly is Matt Groening, the creator of The Simpsons.


He predicted Trump becoming president, 9/11 and the Ebola outbreak among dozen of other events that came true (if you would like to check out all the predictions that came true, check out this).


Why do I bring this up?
Even though I believe Matt Groening being the best predictor I know, his timing has been lousy. He mistimed Trump’s presidency and the ebola outbreak by 16 and 17 years respectively, and he didn’t know the year of 9/11. So if Matt cannot time the market, who can?

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